Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.531259 38.522205 41.790979 45.655528 50.135368 55.209944 61.458718
2025-03-30 30.937103 34.875031 39.472657 45.331591 52.744804 62.028514 74.913349
2025-04-06 28.033440 32.369178 37.646055 44.711086 54.210563 67.022334 86.586604
2025-04-13 25.539302 29.971478 35.521709 43.216958 54.035858 69.482483 94.986487
2025-04-20 24.654107 29.445869 35.637167 44.566241 57.790201 78.027634 115.005108
2025-04-27 23.835231 28.896344 35.614157 45.645849 61.226729 86.710853 138.393085
2025-05-04 23.007220 28.245010 35.358258 46.307021 64.053707 94.947292 164.540731
2025-05-11 21.981083 27.237628 34.499545 45.938066 65.107859 100.212970 186.857150
2025-05-18 21.005313 26.230621 33.553485 45.316330 65.608906 104.496516 209.203677
2025-05-25 20.048993 25.192037 32.483247 44.384078 65.414645 107.311494 229.361064
2025-06-01 19.184092 24.236180 31.471382 43.449645 65.081165 109.749552 250.252866
2025-06-08 18.317798 23.236336 30.334455 42.213719 64.029068 110.371722 265.711380
2025-06-15 18.123888 23.226160 30.732795 43.647641 68.422643 125.231238 354.731187
2025-06-22 17.534434 22.606462 30.154586 43.359108 69.382218 132.065277 421.712386
2025-06-29 16.930245 21.934188 29.450732 42.781504 69.652564 137.186310 491.403937
2025-07-06 16.196507 21.036286 28.341299 41.389581 68.005022 136.441288 522.566621
2025-07-13 16.068277 21.044921 28.678515 42.646658 72.326802 155.120748 782.543009
2025-07-20 15.893094 20.970674 28.872196 43.651285 76.276042 174.895260 1251.103633
2025-07-27 15.653008 20.783113 28.864213 44.266015 79.423531 193.891537 2142.743744
2025-08-03 15.255379 20.332075 28.388726 43.923026 80.137115 203.920423 3308.727833
2025-08-10 14.840423 19.838458 27.817246 43.344765 80.165460 211.236691 5244.821561
2025-08-17 14.398985 19.288363 27.125732 42.477042 79.319702 214.365861 8001.212047
2025-08-24 13.979830 18.761193 26.453200 41.606487 78.366323 216.750140 13362.812564